My 2023 Media, Entertainment & Tech Predictions Scorecard
What I Got Right, What I Got Wrong (& Setting the Stage for My 2024 Predictions, Coming Next Week!)
It’s that time of year again. Prediction time! Each year I offer my own predictions for what I expect to be the leading media, entertainment and tech stories for the coming year. I’ll do it again, of course, for 2024. Expect those next week on December 13th.
But first, let me set the stage by revisiting the predictions I made one year ago for 2023 (you can find them here) – and see how I did. I made 12 predictions last time, and the headline story is that I got 9 out of 12 right (and only 2 of 12 wrong), which ain’t too shabby (here’s the math: I got 8 entirely right, and 2 directionally correct – so I scored those two 1/2 points each to get to my 9 of 12 number).
Here's the scorecard for my 2023 predictions.
WHAT I GOT RIGHT (9 of 12)
Turns out, I got a lot of things right.
First, I predicted that “2022’s year-end icy chatter of ChatGPT” would “thaw into a chilling river of recognition in Hollywood that artificial intelligence’s new sophistication” would “threaten both above and below the line jobs.” I think it’s safe to check this box, since AI was front and center in both the SAG and WGA strikes (and settlements of those strikes). I’ve written extensively about it all throughout the year in this newsletter.
Second, I predicted that Netflix’s ad-supported tier would not be “the great hope and savior that the streaming giant and its investors hope it will be.” Right again. Early November, Netflix reported that its new ad-supported tier only reached 15 million global monthly active users.
Third, I predicted that Elon Musk’s Twitter “burn it all down” strategy would finally “reveal his real diabolical plan – payments and crypto.” And lo’ and behold, we all got his sad and tragic Twitter v2.0 in the form of “X” – which marks the spot of his payments ambitions with all of his crypto bros. I wrote about it in this newsletter as well.
Fourth, I predicted that streaming content budgets would stabilize as result of “unsustainable cash burns.” I further pointed out that by the “mid-way point in the year, all major streaming players” would “spend less on volume, and more on focused impact.” And I think it’s fair to say that 2023 marked a year of significant cost-cutting on the content side of streamers across the board. Even mighty Netflix held steady with its content budget this year, and that didn’t spook customers and investors.
Fifth, I predicted that Ticketmaster would continue to feel the heat from Congress due to its continuing ticketing meltdowns and hidden fees. Of course, the Taylor Swift Effect highlighted this reality and swept over Congress. Maybe those elected officials were frustrated too when they tried to score tickets for their kids!
Sixth, I predicted that Mark Zuckerberg’s “all-in Meta bet on ‘social VR’” would flop and ultimately be marginalized following 2022’s brutal stock market pounding. And true to that prognostication, this year marked a redemption of sorts for “the Zuck” as he jettisoned virtually all talk of VR to focus on AI speak, just like all the rest of Big Tech. And Zuck - and the other big purveyors of AI - were rewarded by Wall Street for it.
Seventh, and relatedly, I predicted that Apple would “school Meta” when it came to the metaverse - and further predicted that Apple would finally launch its new VR/AR headset. And true to my word, Apple launched its Vision Pro in June. One year ago I said that “unlike Zuckerberg, [Apple’s CEO Tim] Cook won’t bet the farm on the metaverse and ‘social VR.’ Instead, he will under-promise with other use cases and then massively over-deliver” ultimately. And so Tim did. Cook is playing the long game here.
Eighth, I predicted that social media superstar TikTok would be hit hard by “geopolitical realities.” Specifically, I noted that “both sides of ‘the Aisle’” in Congress would “pressure the Feds to pull the app’s hall pass.” And I think it’s safe to say that TikTok felt the heat throughout the year on Capitol Hill.
WHAT I KIND OF GOT RIGHT (1/2 point each)
One of my 12 predictions dealt with media-related M&A. Specifically, I predicted that one major boutique studio or production company would be acquired – and I identified BlumHouse, A24 and Anonymous Content as leading contenders. I also noted that Netflix would be the big M&A prize. None of these companies have been acquired yet, of course. But the year certainly was marked by significant media M&A (including Disney’s $8.6+ billion plan to buy out Comcast’s remaining share of Hulu and Concord’s $468 Million acquisition of Round Hill’s music fund). So I think it’s fair to say that I got the theme of big ticket M&A right, but not these specific deals. I’ll give myself a 1/2 point on this one.
I also predicted that Disney CEO Bob Iger would seek out and “fast-track discussions” with Apple’s Tim Cook to sell parts of his Magic Kingdom to Cook’s tech behemoth that shares the same A+ quality global brand, pedigree and DNA. Now we don’t know whether this did or did not happen. But Iger certainly was on the record for being open to offers to buy out his linear networks. So you can bet that Iger and Cook met at The Beverly Hills Hotel’s Polo Lounge at some point to discuss this during one of their afternoon teas (both are too healthy to toast cocktails). One more 1/2 point for this one - which brings me up to 9 of 12.
WHAT I GOT WRONG (2 of 12)
Here are the 2 (of 12) that I got wrong.
First, I predicted that NFTs – a headline story in 2020-2021 – would re-emerge this year from the shadows of crypto to show their strength and “real transformational Web3 opportunities for both creators and consumers.” And while I absolutely believe this will happen, it certainly didn’t in 2023. Instead, NFTs were – and continue to be – painted with the same crypto fraud broad brush of now convicted FTX criminal Sam Bankman-Fried.
Second, I predicted that Jeff Bezos would return to lead Amazon, which obviously didn’t happen (at least not yet). Instead, Bezos stayed in his private gym pumping iron to prepare for his eventual escape from Earth aboard Blue Origin.
All in all, not bad. But still, not good enough. I aim to achieve 100% for you with my upcoming 2024 media, entertainment and tech predictions that you will find first next week (December 13th) right here in my newsletter. It’s coming soon to an email inbox near you!
PLEASE SEND ME YOUR COMMENTS, REACTIONS - AND 2024 PREDICTIONS OF YOUR OWN - TO ME AT PETER@CREATIVEMEDIA.BIZ. I WILL INCLUDE THE MOST COMPELLING ONES IN AN UPCOMING NEWSLETTER. And let’s toast to the year we are leaving behind, and the year that’s ahead!